Seth Godin: 30%, the long tail and a future of serialized content
February 25, 2011
Republished with permission of Seth Godin
The 1960s and 70s were the golden age of magazines. Why?
- Lots of people wanted to read them
- The newsstand could only hold a few of them (barrier to entry permits some to win)
- The winners had no trouble selling ads because they had motivated readers, in quantity
- The cost of making one more edition of the magazine was relatively low
Enter tablets. To some, it feels like the dawn of a new golden age. People page through apps like Wired and gasp at the pretty pictures and cool features. Surely, we’re going to recreate that moment.
Here’s the problem, and here’s how Apple is making it much worse:
The newsstand is infinite. That means that far more titles will have far fewer subscribers. There are more than 60,000 apps on the newsstand. Hard to be in the short head when the long tail is so long…
plus, the cost of each issue is far higher, because it costs a lot more to pay a videographer, a video editor, a programmer, etc. than it does to pay John Updike to write 4,000 words…
plus, advertisers are harder to come by, because the number of readers is always going to be lower than it was back then, and the ads are easier to skip.
Of course, the good news is that the publisher doesn’t have to pay for paper, so the profit on each subscriber ought to be way higher. Except…
Except Apple has announced that they want to tax each subscription made via the iPad at 30%. Yes, it’s a tax, because what it does is dramatically decrease the incremental revenue from each subscriber. An intelligent publisher only has two choices: raise the price (punishing the reader and further cutting down readership) or make it free and hope for mass (see my point above about the infinite newsstand). When you make it free, it’s all about the ads, and if you don’t reach tens or hundreds of thousands of subscribers, you’ll fail.